Are Virtual Worlds (And MORPGs) Being Replaced by "Farmville"?

At my workplace, I’m the only one that I know of who plays Second Life. One other coworker plays a Massive Online Role-Playing Game (not World of Warcraft). What has been getting the attention of the workplace are Facebook games, such as “Farmville” and “Mafia Wars.”

Recently, the rise of these games has started to get some talk. Second Life has started to grow again recently, but only slightly. World of Warcraft, after going strong for years, has had it’s growth slow to a crawl. But the Facebook games, and other web-based games, continue to attract many more users by the month.

Fans of Virtual Worlds and MORPGs once pondered their game getting out-competed by others in their field. Now users of World of Warcraft and Second Life are pondering what was once unthinkable, their favorite online hobbies being replaced by these simple little time users. Even WoW’s owner Blizzard expressed worry in their annual report

We also compete with other forms of interactive entertainment, such as casual games like iPhone applications and other mobile phone games, and games developed for use by consumers on social networking sites. Future increased consumer acceptance and increases in the availability such games or other online games, or technological advances in online game software or the Internet, could result in a decline in platform-based software and negatively impact sales of our console and hand-held products. ... may also render products such as "World of Warcraft" obsolete.

For those used to their entertainment becoming more sophisticated over time, it would be a major step backward in digital evolution.

So why have these little webgames gotten so popular? Why are players spending hour after hour on them that one would normally associate with a MORPG or virtual world? For one, they’re not too difficult to play, normally one just needs a few minutes at most to figure out how. Second Life, movement controls can be a bit awkward for beginners, and even if you don’t plan to own land or build, it can take a while to get the hang of things, and even old timers don’t know everything.

Also, webgames are pretty cheap, people able to log onto them for nothing. Although one can play Second Life as a free player, getting Lindens through contests and jobs, more often people find it quicker to go ahead and put some real money into their virtual experience. And for those whom want to own land, the costs can add up to a lot.

Developers are attracted too. The little games don’t take as much time to make as virtual environments. And even if it’s just money through ads, investors can expect quicker returns.

... while there is plenty of energy being put into new kinds of alternate-reality games, interactive narratives, and other so-called "transmedia" productions, none so far, at least, offer what was available as early as 2003. ... Second Life is [pretty much] the last man standing when it comes to full 3D robust virtual worlds.

So is our number up? Are we going to have to resign ourselves to a future of “Farmville” clones, the days when we could build virtual forests and castles as far as the eye can see a thing of the past?

Not necessarily.

Virtual words and MORPGs have been around for a while, Second Life will be celebrating it’s seventh anniversary in a few months. And as good as they are, none of us can refute they have had their share of bugs and problems. So the less enthusiastic might be inclined to take a break.

The global recession has been particularly hard, some predicting the United States and other countries will experience a “lost decade” as Japan did in the 1990’s. People losing their jobs, and accepting new ones that offer only a fraction of their old pay. And for those who still have their old jobs feel the pressure to build up a cash reserve just in case. With this economizing, the $15 a month for WoW, or a larger amount for a plot of virtual land and home in Second Life, like other forms of entertainment cash, they become targets for the budget chopping block.

Then there’s the audience of these little games. Much of it is young children and teenagers, the latter whom are too young to be playing Second Life, and the former too young to be playing games as intense as WoW.

Eventually, those taking a break will be inclined to come back for more, perhaps sticking around if the things that bugged them the most happen less often or are gone. Like all recessions, this one will end, and people will have more cash to spend for their online entertainment. And the kids will grow up, and be looking for something more sophisticated.

The question is, will Linden Lab be innovative enough to take advantage of the new demand when it happens, or will it simply lumber along, and allow young new competitors to take the lead and leave it behind.

But somewhere, we’ll be able to have our castles and forests.

Bixyl Shuftan

Sources: CNet, Activision/Blizzard Annual Report

Opinion: Second Life’s Numbers Going Downhill

A recent article in “Massively” spelled out what many residents have kept saying would happen if the Lindens didn’t get their act together. More people are moving on from Second Life than moving in.

Second Life’s “User Concurrency” reached 88,000 in Spring 2009, and then began to slowly fall. Officially, the reason is Linden Labs new policies against bots used in camping and gaming. It’s also been thought that after several years, most computer users inclined to give Second Life a try already have. However, this decline comes after a number of questionable decisions by Linden Labs, the Openspace/Homestead controversy, “Age Verification” rules, the end of the Mentor Volunteer group, and others.

Of these decisions, the Openspace debacle may have been the most damaging to Second Life’s numbers. One former SL resident explained that with the new rules and prices, a number of his favorite places closed down, “if the really cool areas with your friends go, then you have little reason to go back.”

By all means, it’s not too late to turn back, but given the Lindens’ past history, people can be forgiven for looking to see what else is out there.

It’s interesting that Massively compared Second Life to Everquest, saying the Metaverse had just about reached the same number of users at the MORPG’s peak. Everquest had been the top game for a few years, then it declined. The arrival of a better game, World of Warcraft is recognized as the big reason, but one gamer pointed out another. The makers of Everquest kept making changes to the game that gradually robbed the game of it’s social aspect, the shrinking number of players finding it harder to meet up to trade or team up. A one-two punch that sent Everquest into a shadow of what it once was.

So far, there is no “Second Life killer” on the horizon that would do it what WoW did to Everquest. But already the actions of the Lindens are driving people to look for new pastures, even if it means abandoning open-ended virtual landscapes and going back to games.


Bixyl Shuftan

Source: Massively